Eastern Conference Finals
#3 Milwaukee (46-26) vs. #5 Atlanta (41-31)
Season series: Milwaukee, 2-1
Atlanta can win if…the Hawks can keep the games close and Trae Young is the best player on the court during crunch time. Young is undersized, not very efficient, and he often takes bad shots, but he is also fearless in clutch moments. He has posted some of the best combined scoring/assists numbers ever for a player making his first playoff run, averaging 29.1 ppg and 10.4 apg in 12 playoff games. Young is shooting just .413 from the field (including .330 from three point range). Shooting percentage is not a perfect measurement of shooting ability or effectiveness as a scorer, but combining those numbers with the eye test it is apparent that Young's shot selection is not the best. His playoff FT% is .877, so there is no question that he has a pure shooting stroke.
Overall, the Hawks did not shoot very well versus the Philadelphia 76ers in the second round (.444 FG%/.335 3FG%), though some of that can be attributed to Young attempting 60 more field goals than anyone else on the team despite having the second worst field goal percentage among the eight players who appeared in all seven games. A team's best player receives the most defensive attention, and he will often not lead the team in FG%, but based on his position, skill set and role Young should be shooting at least .450 from the field, and he shot just .392 versus the 76ers.
Five other Hawks scored in double figures against Philadelphia; that offensive balance combined with a solid defense enabled the Hawks to knock off the East's top seed by winning game seven on the road. Young shot a ghastly .217 from the field (5-23) in that 103-96 win and he also had six turnovers, but he led the Hawks with 10 assists and he controlled the game down the stretch. His impact is similar to Allen Iverson's, but Young shoots three pointers more often that Iverson, which is typical of high scoring guards in this era.
There is a ceiling to how far a high volume, low efficiency guard can take a team, particularly when that guard is undersized and does not have a huge impact on defense, but Iverson proved that a tough player who is fearless in clutch situations can lead a team to the NBA Finals, and that level of success is not out of the question for Young, though sustaining that level of success is improbable unless Young alters his style a bit and/or obtains more help; after leading the 76ers to the 2001 NBA Finals in just his fourth season, Iverson had many scintillating playoff performances--including three playoff series during which he averaged at least 30 ppg--but his teams only advanced past the first round one time.
It will be interesting to see how far Young leads the Hawks this season, and then if that turns out to be the first of many deep playoff runs or just an aberration. Prior to the playoffs, I did not think that Young could take the Hawks to the Eastern Conference Finals, and now it will be interesting to see if he can lead them to the NBA Finals and then sustain that kind of postseason success throughout his career.
Milwaukee will win because…Giannis Antetokounmpo is still playing at an MVP level, and he is the main cog in perhaps the most unheralded "Big Three" in the league: Khris Middleton is an elite shooter/scorer who also can run the offense, and Jrue Holiday is an excellent two-way player. Middleton (shooting splits of .408/.365/.861) and Holiday (.361/.261/.727) both did not shoot well during Milwaukee's seven game upset of the Brooklyn Nets but they were both productive overall (24.3 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 4.3 apg for Middleton; 15.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 4.3 apg for Holiday) and they both made key crunch time contributions. It seems unlikely that they will shoot that poorly versus the Hawks.
Milwaukee may be the healthiest team left in the playoffs, with only Donte DiVincenzo (season-ending ankle injury suffered in game three of the first round) missing from the regular rotation. Injuries have been as important as any other single factor in determining the course of the 2021 playoffs, and if Milwaukee continues to stay healthy that will be a huge advantage.
Other things to consider: It is difficult to believe that after avenging last year's embarrassing loss to Miami and then surviving a seven game war versus the paper champion Brooklyn Nets the Bucks will lose to an Atlanta team that had a sub-.500 record more than halfway through this season. The Hawks are now a very good team, and I have already underestimated them for two series in a row, but the Bucks enjoy matchup advantages at multiple positions. Antetokounmpo and Middleton should both have big series, and look for Holiday to bounce back after performing erratically versus the Nets last round.
Milwaukee will win in six games.
That's the article: Milwaukee Versus Atlanta Preview
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