Eastern Conference Second Round
#3 Milwaukee (46-26) vs. #2 Brooklyn (48-24)
Season series: Milwaukee, 2-1
Brooklyn can win if…the Nets commit to consistently playing solid defense, and then completing those possessions with a defensive rebound. The Nets ranked just 21st in points allowed this season, though they posted a good defensive field goal percentage (.459, seventh in the league). The Nets are an average rebounding team, ranking 14th in the league. Prior to the playoffs, the Nets' vaunted "Big Three" of Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden had barely played the equivalent of one playoff series together this year. That lack of continuity did not matter much when the Nets defeated the overwhelmed and injury-riddled Boston Celtics 4-1 in the first round, but the Bucks are a better team than the Celtics at both ends of the court.
Milwaukee will win because…the Nets have no one who can match up with Antetopkounmpo, but the Bucks--with the addition of Jrue Holiday to form a "Big Three" with Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton--can at least slow down Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden.
Antetokounmpo averaged 23.5 ppg, 15.0 rpg, and 7.8 apg as the Bucks swept the defending Eastern Conference Champion Miami Heat in the first round. Middleton contributed 21.5 ppg, 6.8 rpg, and 4.3 apg in that series, while Holiday added 15.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg, and a team-high 9.8 apg. Antetokounmpo is the 2020 Defensive Player of the Year, Holiday is a two-time member of the All-Defensive Team who should receive that honor again this season, and Middleton is an above average defender. The Bucks will miss Donte DiVincenzo, a starting guard who suffered a season-ending ankle injury in game three versus Miami, but this roster is filled with tough, two-way players. The Nets have great players, but it will not be easy for them to hunt or create mismatches versus the Bucks.
Other things to consider: Milwaukee scored at least 117 points in each of their regular season games versus Brooklyn. Antetokounmpo scored 34 points (13-26 FGs), 49 points (21-36 FGs), and 36 points (11-30 FGs) in those games (39.7 ppg, .489 FG%). The Nets are respected and feared for their offensive prowess, but the Bucks also have a great offense. The difference between the teams is that the Bucks are better defensively, both in terms of mindset and also in terms of personnel.
Durant has emerged as the the Nets' leader. That should not surprise anyone who has followed the careers of Durant, Irving, and Harden. Durant is a two-time Finals MVP, while Irving played his best basketball as the second option to LeBron James as part of Cleveland's version of a Big Three (with Kevin Love as the third option), and Harden's playoff resume is littered with subpar performances when the lights have been the brightest.
Versus Boston, Durant led the Nets in scoring (32.6 ppg), rebounding (7.4 rpg), blocked shots (2.2 bpg), and field goals attempted (97). Harden averaged 27.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, and a team-high 10.6 apg. He is the primary playmaker and the third scoring option; Irving ranked second in field goals attempted (87, 15 more than Harden) but he finished third in scoring (24.8 ppg) because Harden posted his best field goal percentage for any series in his career (.556). This is just the fourth time in 24 career playoff series that Harden has shot at least .500 from the field, but he has shot .420 or worse from the field in 14 playoff series.
If the Nets win the 2021 NBA title, many commentators will likely use that success as a reason to tout Harden's greatness--but if the Nets win the 2021 NBA title playing the way that they did against the Celtics then that will validate what I have been writing about Harden for nearly a decade: he is an All-Star caliber player who is best suited to being the second or third option on a championship team. When Harden's shot attempts and role are reduced to the appropriate level, his efficiency increases and his team's likelihood of winning increases. Harden's 72 field goal attempts in the first round versus the Celtics are his fewest field goal attempts in a playoff series since he was the third option for Oklahoma City nearly a decade ago. Harden shot at least .480 from the field in four of his eight playoff series with Oklahoma City, but he shot at least .480 from the field in just one of his 15 playoff series when he was miscast as the number one option in Houston.
The Bucks are a more well-rounded team than the Nets, but if the Nets keep their squad together and if Irving and Harden continue to play supporting roles to Durant then the Nets will be championship contenders for at least the next two to three years.
This year, though, the Bucks will defeat the Nets in six games.
That's the article: Milwaukee Versus Brooklyn Preview
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