Western Conference Second Round
#1 Utah (52-20) vs. #4 L.A. Clippers (47-25)
Season series: Utah, 2-1
L.A. can win if…the Clippers are able to control Utah's three point shooters without giving up too many points in the paint, and if the Clippers are able to score efficiently versus Utah's elite defense that finished the season ranked second in defensive field goal percentage and third in points allowed while allowing the fewest three pointers made. The Clippers will also need not only another extraordinary series from Kawhi Leonard but for Paul George to excel as the number two option. George played well in the first round as the Clippers beat the Dallas Mavericks in seven games (23.6 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 5.7 apg), but his playoff career is checkered at best, and he was erratic in the second round last year before disappearing in the game seven loss to Denver (10 points on 4-16 field goal shooting).
Utah will win because…the Jazz sailed underneath the radar throughout the regular season, but this team has no weaknesses: Donovan Mitchell provides star power, scoring punch, and playmaking, while Rudy Gobert controls the paint defensively (3.2 bpg in the first round) and is a major offensive threat rolling to the hoop (17.4 ppg, .778 FG% in the first round). The Jazz dispatched the Memphis Grizzlies in five games in the first round, and they probably would have won in a sweep if Mitchell (28.5 ppg in the next four games) had not missed the first game due to injury.
Other things to consider: This is the second round matchup that the Clippers wanted; we know that because near the end of the regular season the Clippers manipulated their lineups to make it more likely that they could avoid a potential second round matchup with the L.A. Lakers. The Clippers' load management and lineup manipulation shenanigans almost resulted in a first round loss as they fell behind 2-0 to the Dallas Mavericks and then trailed 30-11 in game three before recovering to win the series in seven games.
During the first round, critics questioned everything from Coach Tyronn Lue's rotations to Kawhi Leonard's status as an elite player. That nonsensical talk became muted after the Clippers prevailed. Leonard had a sensational series (32.1 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 4.6 apg, shooting splits of .612/.425/.898), becoming the first player to average at least 30 ppg while shooting at least .600 from the field in a playoff series since Shaquillle O'Neal in the 2000 NBA Finals. Leonard is also the only player in NBA playoff history other than Kareem Abdul-Jabbar to average at least 30 ppg while shooting at least .600 from the field in the first six games of one postseason (Abdul-Jabbar accomplished this in 1977, 1980, and 1983).
Leonard was at his best in games six and seven as the Clippers won the final two games of the series. In game six, Leonard erupted for a playoff career-high tying 45 points--including 29 in the second half--on 18-25 field goal shooting in a 104-97 road win to avoid elimination. In game seven, Leonard finished with 28 points, 10 rebounds, and nine assists while shooting 10-15 from the field. In both games, he was the only Clipper who had any success guarding Luka Doncic, who torched every other Clipper he saw throughout the series.
I do not take lightly the decision to pick against a team led by a healthy Kawhi Leonard, but the Jazz are a well-balanced team with no weaknesses. The Jazz have the home court advantage at a time when fans are returning to arenas en masse and home court advantage may once again matter (even though the road team won six out of seven games in the Clippers-Mavericks series). Leonard is a great player, but I am not convinced that the Clippers are a great team, or even a better team than the Jazz.
Utah will defeat L.A. in six games.
That's the article: Utah Versus L.A. Clippers Preview
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